Success in an unpredictable world We have been hearing about climate change now for many years, and we have witnessed the changes for ourselves, wherever we are in Royal Greenland. In Greenland and the North Atlantic, water temperatures are rising by the year, which has been positive for cod and mackerel stocks, but not particularly favourable for prawns. Throughout most of Europe and Asia, we have seen an increasing number of extreme weather phenomena, with higher temperatures in the summer and more violent storms in the autumn and winter. Over the past ten years, we have become inured to the fact that it is only going one way. In fact, we have almost reached a point where the climate changes have become predictable. Each year, there will be less ice, fewer prawns and more mackerel. However, as you know, this was not the case at all this year: The sea ice caused more problems than it has done for ages, the mackerel fishing failed because the water temperature was too low for the mackerel along the east coast of Greenland – and we have now received the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources’ advice concerning the exploitation of west Greenland prawns, which is significantly higher than last year. What we have taken for granted – that the consequences of climate change steadily go the same way each year – did not materialise. It was not predictable, and in hindsight there were things we could have done better if we had reacted faster to a world which was not seeing the developments we had otherwise anticipated. Our industry is subject to the whims of Mother Nature, who is unpredictable, as we know. On top of this, our sales go to markets worldwide, and so we are also exposed to the unpredictability of these markets: Political unrest, wars, natural disasters, environmental problems, exchange rate fluctuations, NGOs and so on. For a company like Royal Greenland, it is extremely difficult to predict what our commercial world will look like five, three or even just two years ahead. Therefore, we need to be prepared to react quickly in the face of change. The key to success in an unpredictable world is the people who quickly notice that what is happening differs from what was expected, and who react quickly and effectively to this realisation. What might they notice? It might be trawler crews who register minor but significant changes in catch statistics. It might be production workers who register minor but significant changes in fish sizes or quality. Or our salespeople who register minor but significant changes in fish sizes or quality. Changes in catches or patterns of consumption only become apparent in the group’s financial figures once they have reached a certain magnitude, at which point the executive management team reacts accordingly. However, if we are to respond quickly and effectively to changes in an unpredictable world, we must be able to detect the changes when they are still small, and well before they start having a real impact on financial figures. It means that we all need to think about what we are doing and not take a routine approach to our work. And it means that we all need to speak to each other, and that we must make a point of doing so often. Have any of your colleagues noticed the same changes? Has anyone thought about changing the working routines as a result? Or about contacting colleagues in other parts of the group? As I said at a group management seminar which was recently held in Maniitsoq, it is true that the ice situation in north-west Greenland meant that we had difficulty delivering fish to customers who would have welcomed them. It is also true that there were a few problems 2 NAVIGATIO NO. 3 • 2015
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